Editorial Reviews
Entrepeneur, December 2001
Tackling uncertainty is tough, but Courtney brings his target down to earth with a solid thump.
Impressive, systematic approach to handling uncertainty, January 2, 2003 - Reviewer: Max More, Ph.D. from Austin, TX USA
This book may be one of the most interesting pieces of work to come out of McKinsey. Hugh Courtney recognizes that traditional strategy approaches do not work well in conditions of significant uncertainty. Traditional tools such as Porter's Five Forces, market research, SWOT analysis, and NPV valuation models work only in "level 1 uncertainty". Courtney rightly critiques those who see uncertainty in binary terms, instead outlining four levels of uncertainty each of which require different strategic approaches. Level 2 uncertainty (several distinct possible futures), in addition to the traditional tools, can be tackled with scenario planning, game theory, and decision-tree real-options valuation (ROV) techniques.
Companies dealing with level 3 uncertainty face a range of futures and need to use additional tools such as system dynamics models in addition to those of level 2. Companies facing confusing level 4 uncertainty, where there is true ambiguity, can use analogies and reference cases and "management flight simulators" to help make sense of deep uncertainty. In a sharp break with the usual approach, the growing number of companies facing level 4 uncertainty need to think backwards from hypothetical futures to what you would have to believe about the future to support a particular strategy. In addition to the levels of uncertainty framework, Courtney outlines the alternatives of "shape or adapt" to uncertainty, make strategic commitments now or later, and follow a focused or a diversified strategy. The details of this book may be familiar in many ways, but the overall framework potentially could be highly enlightening for planners who want to use the right tools for the job. |
